Author: Hoss

Labor Day AF!

“Let’s have a toast for the scumbags
Every one of them that I know
Let’s have a toast for the jerk offs
That’ll never take work off.”- Kanye West

Labor Day is finally upon us.

Labor Day Reflections

This holiday comes during a time when all of our social media feeds are clogged with story after story about how “no one wants to work anymore”. These stories are typically bombarded with reason after reason why no one wants to work at that specific location or company anymore.

  • You don’t pay enough.
  • You and/or your management team treat people like trash.
  • Your benefit package is either nonexistent or uncompetitive.
  • Your product and/or your company aren’t very good.

This comes at a period when there’s also a new work-sensation sweeping the nation for those who are employed… quiet quitting.

Just like the diversity of the labor force, quiet quitting means something different to each person practicing it. For some it simply means doing exactly what’s on your job description and nothing more. For others it’s building a wall strong enough between their job and their life that their job can not penetrate the other side. We all know that job creep exists and left unchecked will grow. But for all of those quiet quitters, the one common element they share is a reevaluation of work’s role in one’s life.

For those who learn from history, we consistently see moments when entire populations question their life and career choices. And these moments happen directly after some large, life-changing event. In America, just since 2000, we’ve had these periods after 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, and now Covid.

These reflection periods are completely normal. When the world changes, it seems to me, that thinking about how you will change to meet the new paradigm is a healthy reaction to any massive cultural shift.

During the pandemic, some folks switched completely to working from home. If that was a good experience for them, why wouldn’t they question going back to their office? If forced to go back to the office, why wouldn’t they seek a job that will allow them to work from home?

During the pandemic, many folks continued with their person-to-person job and even though none of these front-line workers set State or Federal masking and vaccination regulations, they were treated with a never-seen-before level of disdain from customers. In the middle of a deadly pandemic, they were spit on, physically attacked, and screamed at, all while being recorded just in case there were any “gotcha” moments that could get you immediately fired. Even Ricky Schroder got in on the action. Why wouldn’t these people be looking for different jobs?  

The unemployment is currently so low in the country that The Fed is actively trying to increase the unemployment rate. For the first time in a looooong time, we have wage inflation and it’s not just coming from the C-suite like usual. Folks at lower pay scales are getting pay raises, which will shift demand from certain employers to other employers. Yes, supply and demand even applies here.

After the past couple of years, we all deserve and should fully enjoy this Labor Day. We can treat it as a time for reflection about our current and future career paths or we can simply take a nap and enjoy the long weekend with family and friends.

Either way, don’t let Puritan-work-ethic guilt affect your relaxation this weekend. Because, on Tuesday, it’ll be time to get back to laboring.

College Football Is Back!!

The next 4 months of college football are gonna be great. There’s sooooo much to look forward to.

We have that time period when the Notre Dame fans think they have a chance at the Natl Championship after they “dominate” the service academies.

We have those few weeks when we all think Penn State might actually have a competent QB for the first time since Reagan was in office.

There’s the hopeful optimism of all the non-power conference teams who foolishly think they have a chance at the playoffs. Aren’t they precious?

There’s the delusion of the Big 10 fans thinking their conference can compete with the SEC. Bless their hearts!

After running the “gauntlet” of Rice, Fresno State and the Orange County High School All Stars, we will all be bombarded with “ Are the USC Trojans finally back?” No. No they are not. They just play in a high school conference.

Watching the Oregon uniforms get uglier and uglier each week.

The return of some long-time rivalries (Pitt shall eat poo-poo!)

And best of all, we still have a few more weeks before it’s evident that Alabama is just gonna win it all again this year.

So fire up your grill, break out your tail-gatin vitals, and enjoy Saturdays in the fall.

p.s. Until tonight, Georgia is STILL the National Champions (I get to say that for one more day, so I might as well do it!)

The Mute Button Is Your Friend

Old habits die hard. One of the remainders from my trading days is that CNBC is still constant background in my home office. Obviously, I keep the volume set to mute, but occasionally will tune in to hear an interview.

Kraft/Heinz reported this morning and is currently getting taken to the woodshed. (down 8%) I don’t like the set-up currently, but another down-big day, with volume, and I’ll start getting interested. So, I turned up the volume because the onscreen discussion was about KFH and other food companies.

Great Timing!

As soon as the TV was unmuted, I heard this gem come from one of the journalists, “So it seems, people are currently prioritizing eating.”

Of course it’s difficult to interview people on live TV. But I’m hoping on-air talent at CNBC get paid much more than the average American. So with great power comes great responsibility.

I’m not a professional financial journalist or a historian, but I feel very comfortable in saying that all of our ancestors prioritized eating. That’s why they lived. Everyone now and in the foreseeable future will also prioritize eating.

Try harder CNBC on-air talent. Try harder.

Kittle is 100% Right and My Apology to Bills Mafia

The day after the Super Bowl should be a national holiday. Period. Full stop!

Since the internet became the internet, I have been as vocal and as active as I could be about this topic. First, other than July the 4th and Thanksgiving, there’s no holiday more American than the Super Bowl.

  • Folks are tailgating (drinking) early.
  • The food is fattening AF and there are mounds of it.
  • The pregame anthem and fly overs are only a bald eagle away from an American trinity.
  • And the entire event is corporate sponsored.

If that’s not America, I’ll kiss your ass.

As a DFS addict, adding another week to the schedule last year was a dream come true. But it wasn’t until I heard the recent “Bussin’ With The Boys” podcast with Josh Allen and George Kittle that I heard George Kittle propose the perfect solution.

Each Team Gets Two Bye Weeks!!

Before I get into the details, a few observations about this particular podcast.

First, I swear Josh Allen is forcing me to be a Buffalo Bills fan and I’m NOT happy about it!!

I love upstate NY. But I have always been a Bills hater. In fact, my first real  gambling success was that I was blessed to be in college in upstate NY during all of the Bill’s Super Bowl runs. With most of my campus being locals, I took action from everyone I could find. I think some of my fraternity brothers still owe me $ from those games. (I paid off my college truck with the winnings)

It’s been easy to dislike, or at least not like, or not care about the Bill’s organization ever since the mid 90’s. However, that changed when the six foot five gunslinger from Firebeaugh California, via Wyoming, came to town.

Yes, NFL fans now like Josh’s level of play. But, us DFS folks have been fans from the beginning. Quite frankly, being on the Josh Allen train early in the 2019 season, and SUPER heavy in 2020 bestball drafts, was one of the most profitable things I’ve ever done.

We all love the Konami-code of running QBs, but what really attracted me to Josh Allen was his accuracy improvement. Go pull up any quote from scouts, reporters, and commentators in 2017 or 2018. Pull the stats. They both tell the same story… Josh Allen was not NFL-level accurate.

Big, athletic, but not accurate. How many times have we seen this story play out poorly?

So what did Josh do? Just like he did growing up on a farm in the middle of nowhere, he got to work. Who doesn’t love that kind of work ethic?

Over the course of one summer he went from the bottom of accuracy to almost the top. And he’s not being compared to scrubs. Last time I checked: Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Russ Wilson still play in the NFL.

Plus, he’s just the nicest guy in the world. And daggummit, I’m now a convert.

I’m a professional, so I still don’t cheer for laundry, but I wear my throwback Bills hat on most days, and on Sundays in the fall, I often sport the Allen jersey, with Bills belt, and Bills socks. Still no sheet pizzas, blue cheese, or Genessee products, but tons of Bills love.

You were right Bills Mafia, I was wrong.

George Kittle Rocks!

When the topic of 2 bye weeks comes up on the podcast, the banter among the boys quickly turns to people calling George Kittle “soft” and “weak”, for saying two bye weeks is a good idea. When I heard these things I was as shocked as the boys were.

I can tell you who wasn’t saying George Kittle was “soft” and “weak” and that’s NFL GMs, anyone who Kittle blocks on a regular basis, and NFL fans with working eyeballs.

Kittle is a beast. Period. End of story. Every GM in the NFL would LOVE to have him on their team and every QB and running back on his team is happy as hell he’s blocking for them.

And what he does after the catch is highlight reel gold. Even in SF’s run-first climate, and given the QBs that Kittle has had during his brief career, his numbers are already amazing, but if Kittle played in a pass-first offense, his numbers would be through the roof.

And his two bye weeks idea is the right approach! Here are the benefits of two bye weeks…

Two bye weeks enables these Sunday gladiators to gain some well needed rest during the season.

Less superstars being out due to injury.

One more week to gamble on.

One more week for TV rights.

One more week to hit the nuts for those DFS addicts out there.

And the BEST feature with two bye weeks and thus a one week shift in the schedule…

We would then get the day after the Super Bowl off thanks to it being President’s Day!!!

With many/most Americans getting off work the day after the Super Bowl would turn an already quintessential American event into American holiday gold.

Fire up Tom Cruise flying the jet overhead and resurrect Whitney Houston to sing that anthem, we’re all getting drunk, watching commercials, then sleeping in the next morning!!!

Bless you George Kittle and your wonderful mind.

Sincerely yours,

America

#2byeweeks

CEOs Want To Keep Their Jobs Too

Chairman Powell, under Congressional oath, just stated that raising the interest rate will have almost no effect on the price of oil and groceries.

Which, also means, that lowering of the fed target rate also has no effect on the price of oil and groceries.

Which means we should check-in on the 4 Horsemen of Surprised for their reaction to this obvious news.


Supply and demand are tricky things, and that dynamic acts differently across various industries. Oil acts differently than copper, which is different than corn, etc, etc. But we’re seeing weakness across all commodities. (even platinum).  Maybe it’s only a pullback, maybe it’s sustained weakness, too early to tell.

We’re seeing a significant breakdown of Dr. Copper over this past week. Today, FCX broke significant support (and triggered my stop/loss). The OIH and all of the major oils are down almost 15% during the past week as well. Again, maybe it’s only a pullback, maybe it’s sustained weakness, too early to tell.

One of the expressions that commodity traders have clung to for several decades goes a long way to explaining our current relationship with commodity prices. “The cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices.”

Every commodity CEO in the world rushes to get their product to market when their products are at the top of their price range and every CEO pulls back their product when the price is at the bottom of the historic price range. And if they don’t act in this manner, they aren’t CEOs very long. And, not surprisingly, CEOs want to keep their job too