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Labor Day AF!

“Let’s have a toast for the scumbags
Every one of them that I know
Let’s have a toast for the jerk offs
That’ll never take work off.”- Kanye West

Labor Day is finally upon us.

Labor Day Reflections

This holiday comes during a time when all of our social media feeds are clogged with story after story about how “no one wants to work anymore”. These stories are typically bombarded with reason after reason why no one wants to work at that specific location or company anymore.

  • You don’t pay enough.
  • You and/or your management team treat people like trash.
  • Your benefit package is either nonexistent or uncompetitive.
  • Your product and/or your company aren’t very good.

This comes at a period when there’s also a new work-sensation sweeping the nation for those who are employed… quiet quitting.

Just like the diversity of the labor force, quiet quitting means something different to each person practicing it. For some it simply means doing exactly what’s on your job description and nothing more. For others it’s building a wall strong enough between their job and their life that their job can not penetrate the other side. We all know that job creep exists and left unchecked will grow. But for all of those quiet quitters, the one common element they share is a reevaluation of work’s role in one’s life.

For those who learn from history, we consistently see moments when entire populations question their life and career choices. And these moments happen directly after some large, life-changing event. In America, just since 2000, we’ve had these periods after 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, and now Covid.

These reflection periods are completely normal. When the world changes, it seems to me, that thinking about how you will change to meet the new paradigm is a healthy reaction to any massive cultural shift.

During the pandemic, some folks switched completely to working from home. If that was a good experience for them, why wouldn’t they question going back to their office? If forced to go back to the office, why wouldn’t they seek a job that will allow them to work from home?

During the pandemic, many folks continued with their person-to-person job and even though none of these front-line workers set State or Federal masking and vaccination regulations, they were treated with a never-seen-before level of disdain from customers. In the middle of a deadly pandemic, they were spit on, physically attacked, and screamed at, all while being recorded just in case there were any “gotcha” moments that could get you immediately fired. Even Ricky Schroder got in on the action. Why wouldn’t these people be looking for different jobs?  

The unemployment is currently so low in the country that The Fed is actively trying to increase the unemployment rate. For the first time in a looooong time, we have wage inflation and it’s not just coming from the C-suite like usual. Folks at lower pay scales are getting pay raises, which will shift demand from certain employers to other employers. Yes, supply and demand even applies here.

After the past couple of years, we all deserve and should fully enjoy this Labor Day. We can treat it as a time for reflection about our current and future career paths or we can simply take a nap and enjoy the long weekend with family and friends.

Either way, don’t let Puritan-work-ethic guilt affect your relaxation this weekend. Because, on Tuesday, it’ll be time to get back to laboring.

College Football Is Back!!

The next 4 months of college football are gonna be great. There’s sooooo much to look forward to.

We have that time period when the Notre Dame fans think they have a chance at the Natl Championship after they “dominate” the service academies.

We have those few weeks when we all think Penn State might actually have a competent QB for the first time since Reagan was in office.

There’s the hopeful optimism of all the non-power conference teams who foolishly think they have a chance at the playoffs. Aren’t they precious?

There’s the delusion of the Big 10 fans thinking their conference can compete with the SEC. Bless their hearts!

After running the “gauntlet” of Rice, Fresno State and the Orange County High School All Stars, we will all be bombarded with “ Are the USC Trojans finally back?” No. No they are not. They just play in a high school conference.

Watching the Oregon uniforms get uglier and uglier each week.

The return of some long-time rivalries (Pitt shall eat poo-poo!)

And best of all, we still have a few more weeks before it’s evident that Alabama is just gonna win it all again this year.

So fire up your grill, break out your tail-gatin vitals, and enjoy Saturdays in the fall.

p.s. Until tonight, Georgia is STILL the National Champions (I get to say that for one more day, so I might as well do it!)

The Mute Button Is Your Friend

Old habits die hard. One of the remainders from my trading days is that CNBC is still constant background in my home office. Obviously, I keep the volume set to mute, but occasionally will tune in to hear an interview.

Kraft/Heinz reported this morning and is currently getting taken to the woodshed. (down 8%) I don’t like the set-up currently, but another down-big day, with volume, and I’ll start getting interested. So, I turned up the volume because the onscreen discussion was about KFH and other food companies.

Great Timing!

As soon as the TV was unmuted, I heard this gem come from one of the journalists, “So it seems, people are currently prioritizing eating.”

Of course it’s difficult to interview people on live TV. But I’m hoping on-air talent at CNBC get paid much more than the average American. So with great power comes great responsibility.

I’m not a professional financial journalist or a historian, but I feel very comfortable in saying that all of our ancestors prioritized eating. That’s why they lived. Everyone now and in the foreseeable future will also prioritize eating.

Try harder CNBC on-air talent. Try harder.

CEOs Want To Keep Their Jobs Too

Chairman Powell, under Congressional oath, just stated that raising the interest rate will have almost no effect on the price of oil and groceries.

Which, also means, that lowering of the fed target rate also has no effect on the price of oil and groceries.

Which means we should check-in on the 4 Horsemen of Surprised for their reaction to this obvious news.


Supply and demand are tricky things, and that dynamic acts differently across various industries. Oil acts differently than copper, which is different than corn, etc, etc. But we’re seeing weakness across all commodities. (even platinum).  Maybe it’s only a pullback, maybe it’s sustained weakness, too early to tell.

We’re seeing a significant breakdown of Dr. Copper over this past week. Today, FCX broke significant support (and triggered my stop/loss). The OIH and all of the major oils are down almost 15% during the past week as well. Again, maybe it’s only a pullback, maybe it’s sustained weakness, too early to tell.

One of the expressions that commodity traders have clung to for several decades goes a long way to explaining our current relationship with commodity prices. “The cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices.”

Every commodity CEO in the world rushes to get their product to market when their products are at the top of their price range and every CEO pulls back their product when the price is at the bottom of the historic price range. And if they don’t act in this manner, they aren’t CEOs very long. And, not surprisingly, CEOs want to keep their job too

Father’s Day Advice

Best Father’s Day Meme ever

Gen X folks were soooo lucky to have many wonderful father role models piped into our homes via cable during our formative years. Names like: Archie Bunker, Homer Simpson, and Bill Cosby.

Fortunately for me, I had actual father role models in my life as well. But,tbh, when it’s time to dish out fatherly advice to my kids, this is the image that pops into my head right before I dispense the knowledge.

I take that Viktor Frankl moment and think which words will truly be helpful, and sometimes the answer is to not give advice and to let them figure it out for themselves. (parenting really should come with a playbook, guidelines, something)

This year, my Father’s Day gift is I get to deliver as many “that’s what she said” jokes as I want, with no eye rolls or complaining.” It’s a dad-joke firing range at my house today.